Corporate Profits Are At An All-Time Record Peak And Expected To Grow in 2014, amidst unemployment and low wages

Stock markets, like trees, don’t grow to the sky, even if the Dow and the S & P 500 keep gaining ground and hitting new record highs. (The S&P 500 is up 170% since March 2009)

Reprint: Forbes

Still, the risks are rising for the stock market. Stock prices have climbed relentlessly this year and even more to the point have not corrected 10% in over 2 years. The bearish percentage of the Investors Intelligence Survey is only 16.5%; that means 83.5% of market opinion makers are bullish. In fact there are far fewer bears on November 30, 2013 that at the peak of the market in either 2000, the eve of dot-com bubble bursting ,or in 2007 just as the credit bubble was about to blow a near depression our way. One reason: the market peaked in March 2000 at 26 times earnings, while the multiple today is 19.5 times earnings. (see chart on the right) This is called the curse of complacency, but it may continue until it doesn’t any longer. Trust me; the market should not have been selling at 26 times earnings in March, 2000. Smart money was short the NASDAQ index and just waiting for the denouement.

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